Issue 8 – New York Giants at Washington Redskins – Monday December 3, 2012

Low 60’s temperatures with very light winds in the nation’s capital for this marquee Monday Night football match-up between the Washington Redskins (5-6) and New York Giants (7-4). The Redskins are just 2-3 at home, but this will be their biggest game and effort of the season. A loss and they are essentially eliminated from the playoff chase while a victory puts them not only in the wild card hunt but just one game back of the division-leading Giants and Washington would be 3-1 in division games while the Giants would be 2-3.

The Redskins lost to the Giants 27-23 on October 21st (a winner for us on Washington) and now we’re supporting them again as home ‘Dog getting a field goal. Both quarterbacks rallied their teams from behind in the closing two minutes the first meeting with Eli Manning providing the winning 77-yard TD pass. Washington had 480 yards offense and out-gained the Giants by nearly 100 yards despite that long TD pass that ruined the Redskins rally. Four (4) turnovers doomed the ‘Skins in a devastating defeat, but note that the Redskins rushed for 248 yards that day (38 attempts), and Washington leads the NFL in rushing at 164 ypg with their unique read-option attack led by QB Robert Griffin. RG3 had 89 rushing yards and 258 passing yards vs. the Giants, and he’s been his best the past two games in victories with 8 TD passes and just 1 INT against division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia. Griffin has a QB rating over 104 to rank top-3 in the NFL. He’s completing over 67% of his passes with a 16-4 TD-to-INT ratio and is tied for the top yards-per-pass attempt (8.2). He’s having a great rookie season and can boost his Rookie-of-the-Year status with QB Luck by having another big game in the national spotlight.

Washington’s strong running game should key victory tonight. The Redskins run the ball over 31 times per game; a key indicator to ATS success if they reach that number again. The Giants run the ball for NFL average 114 ypg and 25 times per game. Note that the Redskins allow just 89 rushing ypg (#3 in NFL) while the Giants allow 114 ypg and 4.4 ypg, and we saw how the Redskins ran over and through them the first meeting with 120 rushing yards by RB Alfred Morris and a variety of misdirection plays orchestrated by RG3. Griffin can surpass 700 rushing yards tonight and set a rookie QB rushing record. The Redskins pass defense is deficient, and against Eli Manning that presents problems as shown at the end of the Oct. 21st contest. Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks is also returning to form following early season injury, and that too adds to the Redskins pass defense woes. Yet QB Manning is having a below-average season for him when you look inside the numbers, as his QB rating is 84 and he’s thrown 11 INT’s including 7 on the road. Washington allows 301 passing ypg, but teams are forced to the air more often since they don’t run the ball successfully. The Giants pass defense also ranks in the bottom quartile of the NFL allowing 252 passing ypg. But the Giants allow 8.1 yards per pass and 63% completions; both worse than the Redskins. Neither teams special teams units rank top-10,

Washington LB London Fletcher and offensive tackle Trent Williams should both play after being limited this past week. However, the Redskins biggest free agent signing during the offseason, WR Pierre Garcon, is now starting after missing six games including the Giants game. He’s a playmaker and had his best game last week against the Cowboys.

This sets up as another higher-scoring game with both teams able to use their strengths to attack the others weaknesses. Yet key, meaningful division games tend to be competitive with defenses often delivering their biggest efforts. December road favorites off a home win are a 60% play against; technically speaking. Washington also fits some additional strong situations and profiles seeking revenge and when off a straight-up (SU) road win. Combined with our match-up strength at the point of attack, and we’ll support our proven profitable profiles in the running game on both sides of the ball and expect Washington to deliver some payback in their biggest game of the season.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay

Author: FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay