Issue 3 – San Francisco 49ERS at Arizona Cardinals – Monday October 29, 2012

Arizona’s 4-0 start is a thing of the past as the Cardinals have lost 3-straight and now host the best team in their division, San Francisco (5-2). The Cardinals defense has been terrific allowing less than 17 ppg and just 4.9 yards per play (yppl). That’s very solid and even better when adjusted for opponent’s offenses. In fact, the Cardinals are the only NFL team that has yet to allow an opponent to score more than 21 points. Arizona is also healthier with CB Mike Adams and now LB Reggie Walker back from injury. Nose tackle Dan Williams and DE Darnell Dockett (hamstring) need to be more productive this game in slowing down the 49ers league-leading running game.

The Cardinals will have their hands full with the 49er’s strong, balanced offense that averages 378 ypg, 6.3 yppl and well aware those numbers include their 620 yards offense against the Bills brutal defense when San Fran bullied Buffalo 45-3. Still, San Francisco has scored just 16 combined points their last two games. Arizona’s defense will need to be their best as the Cardinals offense is poor thus far averaging just 4.4 yppl and now face a top-tier 49er’s defense allowing a league-low 14 ppg, 9 TD’s and 272 ypg at 4.6 yppl; which like the Cardinals is even stronger when adjusted for opponent’s offenses.

The Cardinals ground game has been very bad averaging 89 ypg and 3.6 ypr, and that puts too much pressure on their QB’s who have performed below average. John Skelton has not been able to get in a good rhythm with top WR Larry Fitzgerald and he could face heavy pressure as Cardinals QB’s have been sacked a league-high 35 times in seven games. Skelton is just 16-of-38 for 194 yards and 2 INT’s in two home games this season, and Cardinals QB’s have completed just three passes for more than 30 yards with limited deep threats, as teams are keying on Fitzgerald and forcing the Cardinals to sustain longer drives. Arizona has been their best at home going 8-1 SU their last 9 home games and 4-0 ATS as home underdog dating to last December. That includes a 21-19 home ‘Dog win over these 49ers last December in which QB Skelton passed for 282 yards and 3 touchdowns with 149 yards receiving and a TD by Fitzgerald. Note too that the Cardinals have 3 outright ‘Dogs wins this year over Seattle, New England and Philadelphia as part of their 3-0 start to the season.

San Francisco’s running game averages a league-best 176 yards per game and 5.9 ypr. They also run the ball an average of 30 times per game, which if they run the ball that many times against the Cardinals stern defense the chances of point spread success are great. Such 30-rush attempt teams went 8-0 ATS in Week 8 victories. The 49ers offensive line is one of the best and they showed against Seattle last game that they can wear down even a top run-stop unit by rushing for 175 yards in a 13-7 win over the Seahawks. Arizona has allowed 331 rushing yards the past two games to drop them to the middle of the NFL rush-defense stats. While the Cardinals did out-gain the Vikings on the road last game 356-209 and held Minnesota to just 4.4 yppl, they’ll have a tougher time containing the strong balance of the 49ers.

While some of the fundamentals line up in the 49ers favor again, must note that San Fran was a 7-point road favorite at Minnesota in Week 3 and was beaten soundly by the Vikings 24-13. With a little extra rest following a Thursday win vs. Seattle last time out, the 49ers are in position to take a 2-game lead in the NFC West over Arizona and Seattle. Fundamentally they appear primed to do so with the superior offense, but never easy to beat a division rival with a solid defense on the road by margin. Add in this technical situation in which teams off a Thursday night win are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS after winning on Thursday and playing their next game on Monday night the past three years.

The Cardinals will have to win the turnover battle and perhaps have some bigger returns in the special team’s game to set up field position as it appears tough for them to have much offensive success against the 49ers. While under the total looks tempting to many bettors, there are some situational scoring systems I have noted that point to more potential scoring than expected. That may be hard to see, along with an Arizona victory, but like the Titans and Jets recent Thursday and Monday Night ATS wins as TD+ underdog, the Cardinals get a small vote to cash a ticket.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay