Issue 1 – Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers – Monday October 15, 2012

The Chargers (3-2) couldn’t overcome some questionable officiating last week and a roughing the passer penalty was a game-changing play that proved costly in defeat to the previously winless Saints. Along with a loss to Atlanta, the Chargers have been less than impressive with wins over the Titans, Raiders and Chiefs (6 KC turnovers). Now they play division rival Denver (2-3), who has the stronger defense and top-10 offense led by QB Peyton Manning.

The Broncos running game has not yet rounded into form but expect improvement under head coach Fox, as he’s always had teams with strong running games. With Manning calling the plays and shots, the Broncos offense should only improve and they have increased their yardage production in each of their first four weeks.

Manning continues to move the team on 3rd down as the Bronco’s offense ranks #3 in the league converting 48% on 3rd down. Last week Denver had 402 yards offense at 6.1 yards per play with just 24 minutes possession time in a 31-25 loss at New England. Some of that was in garbage time and noted with the Broncos trailing by 3+ touchdowns. Both teams off long road trips, but note that Denver has faced a tougher slate of games thus far with losses to New England, Houston and Atlanta while pounding Pittsburgh opening week and a route of the Raiders. Four of those teams/offenses rank top-7 in 3rd down conversion rate, and the Broncos defensive breakdowns and communication has been the problem allowing 46% to rank near the bottom of the NFL.

A negative turnover differential of (-6) has hurt Denver too, but a correction is in order as Manning and his teammates develop more chemistry and cohesion. The future Hall-of-Fame QB is electric under the lights, as Manning has gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on Monday Night Football as a betting favorite or ‘Dog of less than 3 points. San Diego coach Norv Turner has been a losing proposition in division games, as his teams are 17-31 ATS at home in division contests including 0-5 SU/ATS as a favorite of 3 or less. While QB Rivers has gone 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS against Denver, note that the Chargers were mostly the better team in recent seasons and that’s not the case this year.

Of more importance is that Rivers will face heavy pressure from Broncos star defensive players Von Miller and Elvis Dumerville, especially with offensive LT Jared Gaither dealing with injuries and very doubtful (groin) after missing practice all week. Also, WR’s Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal are hurting (groin, hamstring) and less than 100% but probably make post. Denver won at this site last year with Tim Tebow at quarterbacks. At a near pick ’em price, no doubt they can win again with Manning leading a better and improving team.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay