Firing For Birdies And Better Bets At The 2021 BMW Championship
Following last week’s Northern Trust that finished Monday, the second leg of the 2021 FedExCup Playoffs is at a new course in Maryland for the 2021 BMW Championship. The par 72 at Caves Creek stretches to 7,542 yards for the 70 golfers remaining in the FedExCup Points Standings.
I provided an early week golf preview for TheLines with BMW Championship odds now posted. I chipped-in added BMW Championship coverage for Forbes, along with some other handicappers and analysts I asked to join my Fairway Foursome for forecasts this week.
I’ve been on a rough run the past few months, making too many bogeys on our posted match-ups on this site. I’ve chipped-in another this week with analysis, and we’ll shoot for few winners in the final two playoff events. The tournament match-up record is now sit at 20-14 this season.
BMW Championship Odds 2021
J Rahm 7/1
X Schauffele 16/1
J Thomas 20/1
J Spieth 20/1
D Johnson 20/1
C Morikawa 20/1
C Smith 20/1
R McIlroy 25/1
B Koepka 25/1
B DeChambeau 25/1
P Cantlay 25/1
L Oosthuizen 30/1
T Finau 30/1
S Scheffler 30/1
V Hovland 35/1
72 Hole Winning Score prop: 269.5
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) August 24, 2021
COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION
- Course: Caves Valley Golf Club
- Location: Owings Mills, MD
- Date: Aug. 26-29, 2021
- Par: 72 / Yardage 7,542
- Purse: $9.5 Million / Winner $1.7 Million
- Fairways/Rough: Bluegrass / Perennial Ryegrass mixture
- Greens: Bentgrass
- TV: Golf Channel and NBC (Sat-Sun)
- Live Streaming: NBCSports.com/live, NBC Sports App and PGA Tour Live
- Twitter: @BMWChamps
A Tom Fazio design. While there is no strokes gained data or golf stats and performance charts from the course, the best ball strikers will rise to the top. Added length will benefit bigger hitters with stronger Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green performance.
“It’s a big boy golf course, especially as soft as it is…it’s going to benefit a lot of your bigger hitters for sure,” Ryan Palmer said this week.
Golfers to Watch
Jason Kokrak: Despite not playing too well over the past month, Jason Kokrak is a dark horse and longshot offering value. He’s still top 15 in birdies or better gained over his last 36 rounds, and No. 1 over his last 24 rounds in strokes gained putting on bentgrass. He’s also top 10 tee-to-green, off-the-tee, ball striking and short game. Kokrak has the distance off the tee and strength in hitting greens to do well this week. At No. 17 in the FedExCup Points standings, Kokrak is the longest odds to win this week of nearly all the players in the top 30.
Viktor Hovland is one of the elite players on Tour this season with his combined stats in tee-to-green, approach and ball striking. More recently over his last 24 rounds, the 23-year-old Norwegian star is top 10 in ball striking, tee-to-green, off-the-tee and around the green. He’s also No. 3 on Tour in birdie average, and top 10 in this field in birdies or better gained over his last 36 rounds. His putting on bentgrass is in the top half of this field, and we’re counting on more good looks at birdie this week with Hovland among the golf stats leaders in proximity to the hole and top-3 from 175-200 yards, according to research at Fantasy National. A new course for all players to navigate, and this one has some comparable characteristics of tough Quail Hollow, where Hovland finished T3 in May at the Wells Fargo Championship with the best scoring weekend in the field. Hovland’s strengths can carry him towards the top this week.
Thursday and Friday featured groups and odds to win the BMW Championship (FanDuel.
- Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith
- Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau
- Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa
- Dustin Johnson, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka
- Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Rory McIlroy
- Abraham Ancer, Louis Oosthuizen, Sam Burns
2021 BWM Championship Picks
Fairway’s Favorites: Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey (all +2500 or greater)
Fairway’s Longshots: Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Nieman, Jason Kokrak, Sebastian Munoz
Tournament Match-ups: Jason Kokrak (-112) over Kevin Na (FanDuel)
I bet over the winning score prop of 269.5 (par is 288) for the 2021 BMW Championship,
Tournament match-ups 20-14 YTD posted on this site.
I played over the winning score prop of 269.5 (par is 288), and if the course plays longer and provides a greater edge to bigger hitters, than Kokrak has a massive edge over Kevin Na. The short-hitting Na ranks outside the top 160 on Tour in driving distance and GIR. The short game of Na remains elite, but he’s not a good fit on this course this week. Kokrak ranks top 20 on Tour in driving distance, more than 20 yards beyond Na on average. Kokrak’s strokes gained stats over his past 36 rounds are stronger in key areas OTT, T2G, Approach and Ball Striking. He’s also top-7 in Birdies or Better gained, and well in front of Na in birdie average this season. Only Na’s strong top-10 finishes in three of his last four events has him listed in a match-up here, and it’s a mistake bettors can take advantage of when factoring in projected course fit over current form.
More updates on this site including betting data as available from leading online sportsbooks that fire me updates like BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings, William Hill, PointsBet and now Caesars Sportsbook with others like WynnBet hoping to join the New York sports betting market. I’ll chip-in as I receive and request more data.
Next week’s it’s the TOUR Championship for the top-30 players in the points standings. The winner of the FedExCup Playoffs will win $15 million, and seven players will pick up at least $1.3 million.