Fairway’s Forecast – College Football Week 6 Preview And Picks

Fairway’s Forecast and Week 6 College Football Underdog Picks

We missed the mark badly last week going 1-3 on our underdog picks, and misreading or hitting it out of bounds is not the way to make birdies and turn a profit. It doesn’t help when the teams you play have incompetent quarterbacks that turn the ball over constantly like Virginia (+12.5) did at Notre Dame after leading at halftime, but it’s on me to do a better job of handicapping, researching and preparation.

We’ll incorporate more statistical profiles into our handicapping with additional articles in the weeks ahead to provide more insight on offensive efficiency and production, along with defensive strength. A few of our picks this week include teams that are defensive dominators as ‘Dogs, and we’ll outline more parameters in articles ahead and how to utilize in your handicapping approach.

Read the rest of my insights and analysis in my article at Offshore Gaming Association, which includes the analysis on Friday night’s game between Cincinnati and Central Florida.

NCAA Underdog Selections for Saturday, Oct. 5 plus one play on Friday

308 Cincinnati (+4) vs No. 18 UCF – Bearcats Money Line +160   (Friday)
342 New Mexico State (+4.5) vs Liberty – Aggies Money Line +155
391 No. 25 Michigan State (+20) at No. 4 Ohio State – Spartans Money Line +800

We have been buried a few times by Ohio State, but as their stock rises along with the betting line, we try once more with a defensive dominator in Michigan State taking back three touchdowns. Both these teams are defensive dominators, with the Spartans allowing 15 PPG and 254 yards per game. Ohio State has been explosive on offense with four straight games off at least 500 yards. The Buckeye’s are rushing for 282 yards per game and passing for 254 YPG with QB Justin Field sporting a 16-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and seven rushing touchdowns. When you combine a Buckeyes dominant defense that allows just 9 PPG, 224 YPG at 3.3 yards per play to rank No. 2 in the country in both categories, you’re likely saying WFT Fairway?! At 5-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country, Ohio State has earned the accolades. But did anyone see Clemson’s 22-21 escape last week at North Carolina? Or Wisconsin’s powerful offense manage just one offensive touchdown at home in a 24-16 win over Northwestern? The top teams are not always at their best, and with stronger teams and defenses in Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan ahead, the Buckeye’s will not keep up their offensive profile. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has been terrific in the underdog role, 19-9 ATS since 2011 and even better in conference revenge situations. Yes it’s Ohio State, but 5-0 teams off big blowout wins and covers are a poor ATS play in game 6. Especially against defensive dominators with Playbook noting another 2-15 ATS profile working against the Buckeye’s vs. a dominant defensive team like Michigan State.

Teams playing this Saturday following a bye last week include: Bye team in bold.

Utah State at LSU (-27.5)
Georgia (-24.5) at Tennessee  (both off bye)
Troy at Missouri (-25)
Illinois (+14) at Minnesota
Boston College at Louisville (-5)
Virginia Tech at Miami (-14)
Texas (-10.5) at West Virginia (both off bye)
Arizona at Colorado (-4)
Cal at Oregon (-18)
Tulane (-2.5) at Army
Tulsa at SMU (-13)
Boise State (-22.5) at UNLV
San Diego State (-8) at Colorado State
UTSA at UTEP (-2)
Ohio (-3.5) at Buffalo
Kent State at Wisconsin (-35)
Bowling Green (+46) at Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan (-6) at Central Michigan
Ball State (+5) at Northern Illinois
Arkansas State at Georgia State (+7)

Teams that have a bye this week include:

Alabama, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Utah, USC, Arizona State, Washington State, BYU, Houston, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, So. Miss, No. Texas, Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH), Akron, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Texas State

Author: FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful handicappers and professionals. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay