Fairway’s Football Forecast: Week 1 College Football ‘Dogs

Northern Illinois Headlines Weekly College Football Underdog Picks and Plays

Last season I provided a fun weekly exercise providing 4 college football underdog picks with analysis each week. Fairway’s Football Forecast was producing more winners than losers through more than half the season when I went on the disabled list and PUP. The feedback from Fairway’s followers was great, and I’ll start chippin’-in again following opening week so I can coincide our four weekly college football plays with our NFL picks and projections.

Our college football picks and plays were 14-10 ATS selecting only underdogs, and of our 14 ATS winners, 10 teams won the game outright. So I came up with a $1,000 per week bankroll to wager on these games as follows:

• $200 bet on each team to cover the point spread ($800)
• $40 bet on the money line for each underdog to win the game outright ($160)
• $20 bet on a 4-team money line parlay ($20)
• $20 bet on a 4-team parlay ($20)

I thought I would add a small parlay wager each week utilizing 10% of bankroll each on those two parlays. We did not produce a 4-0 record in any week last season, so that cut into our profits. However, the payoff to hit one of those parlays is rewarding, and I know many bettors that like to go for a bigger score and parlay payoff (Big Bertha), so I added that to our wagering portfolio.

Following these guidelines and the available lines posted each week, a bettor would have won $600 net profit through 7 weeks. If you elected to not play parlays, you could have added an additional $300+ to your bankroll and profits. However, some bettors did bet some 3-team parlays and round robins and were rewarded with payoffs as we had three 3-1 weeks.

Writing up games and providing detailed analysis takes much time each week. Along with the research, handicapping, stat profiles, line moves and keeping on top of all the information, news and logging of stats, it’s another effort to write-up the games. Try it sometime and you’ll better understand. Betting is another skill, as is anticipating line moves. While we do our best to stay ahead of the games, understand the market is out of our control. We can anticipate moves by the linemakers at the sportsbooks by projecting lines and also recognizing over-reactions to results. The information and analysis I provide is later in the week due to research and time constraints as mentioned, along with injuries and suspensions and other factors that impact the match-ups and line, totals and market moves.

I kicked off the Week 1 season with a winner on Tulane (+7) Thursday, who covered and just missed the outright win losing in overtime to Wake Forest 23-17. A money line return on a 7-point underdog returns approx. +230. Hitting those outright winners is a nice boost to the bankroll.

For Saturday, Sept. 1, I’ll chip-in an underdog play with some analysis. While we got in earlier on No. Illinois, it’s still a game the Redbirds can win outright knowing Iowa has a number of injuries and suspensions as I noted in our Week 1 college football article.

Shop lines at the leading offshore sportsbooks, including reduced juice shops like 5Dimes which still has best line on Northern Illinois along with MGM, a licensed sportsbook operator in the U.S.

Week 1 college football – Sat., Sept. 1

171 Northern Illinois (+10.5) at Iowa – Huskies Money Line +325

The Iowa Hawkeyes won 8 games last season including a Pinstripe bowl victory. So much respect for 20th year Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, who annually has the Hawkeyes on the winning side of the ledger with fundamental philosophies and success. But this year looks like a downer to me, and under the 7.5 win total is a worthy wager. Iowa’s stat profile suggests some drop off, and their talent does not look as good as last season.

Iowa was outgained by 28 points yards game (YPG) last season, including -41 YPG in Big Ten play. Yet the Hawkeyes outscored opponents by more than 8 points per game (PPG). But a better indicator of success than total yards is yards per play (YPPL), and the Hawkeyes averaged 5.1 YPPL on both offense and defense last season. Iowa was actually worse than average on offense in YPPL when factoring opponents. The Hawkeyes were also plus-7 in turnover margin and the underrated part of a team’s success was on Iowa’s side, as the Hawkeyes had excellent special teams.

Iowa’s rushing attack average just 139 YPG; its worst production since 2012. The offensive line looks fine this season, but the RB’s lack experience. Junior QB Nathan Stanley has ideal size and arm strength and should improve on his sub-par 55% completion rate. He passed for 2,400+ yards last season with a 26/6 TD-to-INT ratio.

In this opening week match-up, Stanley and the Iowa offensive will be without their two starting tackles (suspended) with their replacements making their first career starts. Northern Illinois also went 8-5 last season but lost their bowl game. However, the Huskies are projected to improve with more experience and the favorite in the MAC to reach the title game for the seventh time in nine years. The Huskies defense has all four defensive linemen return including DE Sutton Smith, the nation’s leader in tackles for loss, sacks and QB pressures while earning MAC Defensive Player of the Year honors. The defense was strong last season and has a solid nucleus returning along with LB Kyle Pugh, who was superb before an injury in the fourth game cut his season short.

The Hawkeyes defense not only lost a pair of All-American’s on defense (LB and CB) and their top-3 tacklers, but also a pair of projected starters in the secondary were lost this summer. They will also play the game vs. NIU without their starting and backup defensive tackles. Northern Illinois counters with nine returning starters on offense including an improving mobile sophomore QB Marcus Childress who was the MAC Freshman of the Year. The Huskies feature a top-tier offensive line with five upperclass returning linemen. They should pave the way for a productive rushing attack that has averaged at least 230 YPG in five of the last seven seasons. Last year’s 29 points per game offense was NIU’s lowest point production in the last seven years. We do note that NIU’s leading receiver from last season Spencer Tears was suspended this week for the Iowa game.

Few teams in the country have been better on the road than over the past decade (41-19 ATS) than NIU, and the Huskies are also 11-1 ATS in its last 12 contests vs. the big boys from the Big Ten, and 4-1 SU under current coach Rod Carey with the lone loss to #1 Ohio State 20-13 in 2015. The Huskies won at Nebraska last season 21-17 as an 11’-point puppy, and Northern Illinois won the last meeting in Iowa City 30-27 in 2013. While the 10.5-point spread suggests just a 12.4% chance for the upset win, the match-ups, situation, stats and suspensions increase our chances. The percentages are strong for an ATS cover if NIU holds Iowa to less than 28 points which is what I anticipate. We open our season with a true ‘Dog, the Northern Illinois Huskies.

You can bet on it.

Article posted at osga.com.