Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks And Preview
Identifying NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Week 6 Bets
Following a 2-2 week on our Week 5 underdog picks on these pages that included the biggest upset of the season by the Las Vegas Raiders (+12.5) over Kansas City 40-32, we now stand 6-10 ATS this season and 83-64 the past 3-plus season selecting only underdogs.
I don’t get deterred despite the results, but understand there is frustration at times. A proven history of top of the leaderboard results in my handicapping success that includes eight straight winning NFL season and a winning percentage above 57% on nearly 650 plays allows me to have confidence in my ability and the process.
I had a money line bet on the Raiders last week (+575) along with a +13.5 and +14 line (closed +10 or 10.5). But there was a little disappointment in the Vikings straight up loss as we had Minnesota on the moneyline as well along with more money on the points spread (of course). The Vikings (+7) delivered as our Week 5 Play of the Day, but those of us with a moneyline bet on the Vikings watched in disbelief as Minnesota blew the game in the final two minutes with a number of most unlikely situations.
The Vikings had a 94% chance to win leading 26-21, but failed on fourth and less than a yard inside the Seattle 7-yard line. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson took the offense down the field and convered a pair of fourth and long situations including the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds.
NFL Scoring Surge
I provide another article this week on the increased scoring in the NFL at Offshore Gaming Assocation. NFL games are averaging a record 51.4 points per game through five weeks. Bookmakers are adjusting and at least seven games have totals above 50 points each of the past three weeks, and the over/under results are nearly split the last two weeks but still hitting at a 57% clip this season (with a few pushes part of the calculation).
The point spreads and totals can change right up to game time on Sunday, and we’ll post updates from leading sportsbooks on some of the betting splits of weekly games.
Of course the popular winning teams are attracting the most bets and handle (total money) in Week 6 with the Chiefs, Ravens, Rams and Packers leading the way.
Several Pro 🏈 teams are getting a lot of love from William Hill bettors in Week 6.
The most popular spread bet? Kansas City is capturing 88% of the total number of tickets and 94% of the total dollars wagered vs. Buffalo.
— William Hill US (@WilliamHillUS) October 16, 2020
NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks
261 Cleveland (+3.5) at Pittsburgh – Browns Moneyline +175
276 Dallas (+2) vs Arizona – Cowboys Moneyline +100
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
The key game on the Sunday slate is an AFC North division duel. The Steelers (4-0) lead the division but are just a half game in front of the Browns (4-1) and Ravens (4-1). Cleveland has won four straight games following their opening week loss at Baltimore, and the Browns offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play vs the Steelers 5.6 against a weaker schedule. New Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski’s coaching handbook is, win the turnover battle (+6 this season), run the football (No. 1 rushing, No. 2 attempts), and stop the run (No. 4 rushing yards against. Stefanski has preached this message from day one to his players, and the Browns rushing attack now leads the league averaging 188 yards per game and No. 2 in rushing attempts at 34.5 per game. The Steelers are allowing a league-low 64 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. Pittsburgh’s wins have come against the Giants (0-5), Broncos (1-3), Texans (1-4) and Eagles (1-3-1), and three of those teams have the worst rushing attacks in pro football and all four are in the bottom quartile of scoring offenses at less than 23 points per game. This is also the Steelers fourth straight home game as their Week 4 game at Tennessee was postponed. Pittsburgh gets their strongest test thus far and we’re back on the Browns as a team we projected to exceed their win total of 8.5 this season.
More Week 6 game analysis and information you can bet on in the article at Offshore Gaming Association.