Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks And Preview

NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks and Information You Can Bet On

Last week we went 3-2 on these pages which was about as bad as it could have been with Sunday underdogs going 9-4 ATS. I fired out a Week 4 betting recap in Forbes noting how Bookmakers buried many bettors last week. Bettors continue to bet more favorites and especially the top teams including the powerful Patriots and Chiefs who failed to cover but got fortunate wins last week. We had both the Bills and Lions in those games with so many underdogs of interest last week which also included the Saints which we mentioned and also the Bucs, but decided to keep the card at five plays on these pages.

This week, we’ll actually be on more favorites, but chip in a small sample of underdogs for you to consider for your wagers when betting at the leading online sportsbooks.

When we go inside the numbers through the opening quarter of the season and evaluate the Week 5 contests, there are not many match-ups where we can project a team with a significant edge at the point of attack, especially for underdogs. But we’ll still shoot for the green hoping to score more birdies and add to our scorecard, which now stands 10-5 ATS this season selecting only underdogs and 61-32 ATS (65%) the past 2+ seasons on these pages with 40 outright underdog winners. That continues a long history of NFL winners covering more than 15 years of weekly winners plus some selected NFL contest success.

As we evaluate the many quarterback changes, and continue to study the stats, know that Sam Darnold has been ruled out again for the NY Jets this week in their game at Philadelphia. There will be at least 10 quarterbacks starting in Week 5 that were backups at the start of the season. The Bills QB Josh Allen cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play and keep his starting position. The list of teams with quarterback changes includes:

AFC: Colts, Jaguars, Steelers, Dolphins, Jets
NFC:  Saints, Panthers, Bears, Giants, Redskins

The AFC West and NFC West are the only two divisions that have not had a quarterback changes this season.

NFL Week 5 Sports Betting Podcast plus industry news you can bet on.

The ‘powerful’ Patriots are taking the most the bets with Sports Insights showing a week-high 85% of the spread bets on the Patriots from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks.

Read the rest of my article at osga.com, and review an underdog pick below for Week 6.

NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks

462 Washington (+15.5) vs. New England – Redskins Money Line +665

Where do we start with this one-sided match-up?  The Patriots get ultra-lucky to escape Buffalo last week and benefit again from the softest schedule in the league having beaten a now weaker Pittsburgh team, worst-ever Miami, Jets with a first time starting quarterback and now the winless Redskins, who will start Colt McCoy as he returns from a pre-season injury. Oh, and the Patriots have the Giants up next on Thursday and then the Jets again. Jesus. Sure New England’s defense is strong, and the stats are dominant allowing a league-low 243 yards per game adn 4.0 yards per play. The Redskins defensive numbers are 399 at 6.1 to rank in the bottom quartile of the league, and Washington just lost at New York 24-3 and managed just 8 first downs and 176 yards against the Giants. Another oh Lord.

So it seems the bookmaker and sportsbooks could set this line a good field goal higher and still draw more Patriots money even on the road. But Washington’s big loss sets up some positive profiles as a contrary selection.

Last week’s performance by Tom Brady produced his worst QBR rating since 2006. Sure that was against the strong Bills defense, which we projected, but Brady is passing mostly to his running backs with little help from his receivers or tight ends in recent weeks. The Patriots running game has dropped to 91 yards per game, but that’s still better than the Redskins pathetic rushing attack which is almost league-worst at 49 yards per game. That makes this pick a little contrary when evaluating the rushing numbers we review in our inside the numbers projections. Especially since the Patriots run defense is allowing just 61 yards per game and the Redskins run the ball a league-low 17 times per game.

Read the rest of the analysis and article at osga.com.

Author: FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful handicappers and professionals. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay