Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks And Preview

NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks and Information You Can Bet On

Our December underdog picks are now 7-4 ATS following last weeks 4-1 result that included three outright underdog winners. That gets us back in the black at 25-23 ATS this season selecting only underdogs and now 76-50 ATS (60%) the past three NFL seasons adding to our success, strategies and sports betting stories producing winning NFL results and insightful information.

The lone loser last week was on the Bears, who suffered a 3-0 turnover differential while out-gaining the Packers in Green Bay 415-292 in defeat. Teams that are +3 or more in a game this season like the Packers last week are now 37-4 SU and 36-4-1 ATS. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column are 35-4 SU and 32-7 ATS. Turnovers are game changers.

NFL Week 15 – Sunday, Dec. 15

309 Chicago (+4.5) at Green Bay – Bears Moneyline +185
316 Carolina (+6.5 or 7) vs. Seattle – Panthers Moneyline +230
321 Buffalo (+1.5) at Pittsburgh  – Moneyline Bills +105
327 Atlanta (+11) at San Francisco – Falcons Moneyline +425
330 Dallas (+1.5 or 2 game day) vs. LA Rams – Cowboys Moneyline +105

Our 2019 season is not quite up to par like last season’s 35-19 ‘Dog log that included a 6-0 ATS finish the final three weeks. But a 4-1 week to start the final three weeks is a good start towards a stronger December finish in pursuit of another positive and profitable NFL season selecting only underdogs on these pages.

Let’s keep firing for the flag in pursuit of profit and green in Week 16 with some big games and match-ups drawing major money at the sportsbooks including William Hill. First place on the line in key match-ups in the AFC East, NFC East and NFC North.

Over the past three seasons posting underdog picks on these pages, the record now stands at 76-50 ATS (60%).

For added insight and information on this year’s betting results and teams that are powering their way to profits and success in the running game, read my recent Inside the Numbers article. Hopefully you’ll gain more insight into NFL handicapping and betting, and add additional arsenal to your game to learn as you earn.

More market moves and Week 17 look ahead lines in my recency report at TheLines, including the market game of the week Monday between the Packers and Vikings.

NFL Week 16 – Dec 22-23 

453 Buffalo (+6.5 or 7) at New England – Bills Moneyline +245
464 Tennessee (+2.5 or 3 at -125) vs. New Orleans – Titans Moneyline +120
469 Cincinnati (PK) at Miami – Bengals Moneyline -115
474 Cleveland (+10) vs Baltimore – Browns Moneyline +360

Buffalo at New England 

We’ve been riding the Bills (10-4) quite often this season including in their 16-10 Week 4 loss (but cover) against these Patriots (11-3) when QB Josh Allen tossed three interceptions and the Patriots returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. Allen completed just 46% of his passes against the Patriots in that defeat, and he’s also completing just 46% of his passes the last two weeks including in last weeks win at Pittsburgh when we cashed in again on the Bills. The UNDER is down to 37 and taking lots of action and we agree, as the Patriots and Bills scoring defenses rank 1-2 allowing less than 16 points per game. New England will also be playing without CB Jonathan Jones (groin), who is ruled out with other players remaining questionable on the Patriots defense that leads the league in interceptions. Both teams offenses are inefficient with poor passing production. Pressure is more problematic for QB Allen, but we still back the Bills with 5Dimes dealing +7.

Read the rest of the game analysis at osga.com.

Author: FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful handicappers and professionals. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay