Evaluating College Football September Bye Schedules And Situations
September Bye Weeks And Situations You Can Bet On
Early season college football continues in September, and we now start to see teams with bye weeks on the schedule. I’ve outlined the early September bye week schedule below, and you can review the full September bye week schedule and the rest of my article at osga.com.
For games on Sat., Sept. 14, these teams in bold are playing off a bye last week.
UNLV at Northwestern (-18.5)
TCU (-2.5) at Purdue
Iowa (-2.5) at Iowa State (
New Mexico at Notre Dame (-35)
Maryland (-7) at Temple
East Carolina at Navy (-7.5)
Air Force at Colorado (-4.5)
Southern Miss at Troy (-2.5)
Murray State at Toledo (NL)
In college football, this can be a real benefit to the rested and prepared team, especially later in the season as teams deal with more fatigue, injuries and pressure to perform in a conference title run or bowl game bid.
Teams with a bye this week, and opponents on deck the following week.
|Bye||Team||Conference||Pre Bye||Post Bye||Notes|
|14-Sep||Vanderbilt||SEC||at Purdue||LSU||7-straight losses to LSU by 17 PPG. Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||Michigan||Big Ten||Army||at Wisconsin||Beat #15 Wisconsin 38-13 LY|
|14-Sep||Rutgers||Big Ten||at Iowa||Boston College||Did not play LY. 13-str losses vs BC|
|14-Sep||Wisconsin||Big Ten||Central Michigan||Michigan||Lost to #12 Michigan 38-13 LY|
|14-Sep||Baylor||Big 12||UTSA||at Rice||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||Connecticut||AAC||Notes+A1+D182:F27||at Indiana||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||Utah State||MW||Stony Brook||at San Diego State||Did not play LY, 10 str losses to SDSU|
|14-Sep||Fresno State||MW||Minnesota||Sacramento State||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||San Jose State||MW||Tulsa||at Arkansas||First meeting|
|14-Sep||Marshall||Conf USA||Ohio||Cincinnati||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||Old Dominion||Conf USA||at Virginia Tech||at Virginia||First meeting|
|14-Sep||UAB||Conf USA||at Akron||South Alabama||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||UTEP||Conf USA||at Texas Tech||Nevada||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||Appalachian State||Sun Belt||Charlotte||at North Carolina||Did not play LY|
|14-Sep||Louisiana Monroe||Sun Belt||at Florida State||at Iowa State||Did not play|
Michigan at Wisconsin is a Top-25 showdown in Madison Sept. 21.
When playing at home off a bye, there is a solid situational edge when playing an opponent that is not off a bye, and usually a motivational edge especially if a quality or capable team is off a loss. Redemption can also factor in, but the linemakers and sportsbooks factor these situations into the line. Still, this late season bye situation from Bet Labs database should not be ignored. Home teams with at least 13 days rest playing a conference game past November 1st are 38-21-2 ATS (64%) since 2015. There is an especially strong situation supporting Pac 12 and Mountain West home teams off a bye in November, and we’ll review that more in our November bye weeks update.
Some coaches just prepare their players better during a bye week. They game plan and strategize for an opponent better, and add additional plays and insight to assist players in preparation.
These coaches and teams are ones to watch, as the coaches ATS record off a regular season bye is noteworthy.
Gary Patterson, TCU (10-3 ATS) – TCU off bye at Purdue Sept 14
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech (6-1 ATS) – VT off a bye vs Duke Sept 27
Matt Wells, Texas Tech (6-1 ATS) – TT off a bye at Oklahoma Sept 28
A little more on Matt Wells and his intensity taking over Texas Tech this year after success at Utah State.
Other bad situational spots include teams playing back-to-back road games against home teams off a bye. This is a positive and profitable profile for the rested and ready home team.
That puts Southern Miss in a bad spot at Troy (-2.5) on Sept. 14.
Plenty of situations and profiles to consider as you evaluate these teams off a bye, and we’ll review more as the season moves along. But recognize scheduling situations and take note of teams off a bye, and those playing at home that may also have additional motivation that includes significant redemption (Arizona Sept. 28).
These are additional pieces to add to your handicapping arsenal, but know that you still must evaluate the match-ups, motivation, injuries, statistical profiles and betting lines. The linemaker makes adjustments to early season results, power ratings and to the bye week situation, and especially to rested and ready teams playing with redemption.
You can bet on it.