College Football Handicapping – Defensive Dominators

Evaluating The Stats And College Football Defensive Dominators

In seasons past I’ve written many articles on college football using statistical indicators and profiles to direct you to more point spread winners. In my most recent article last week I provided a list or teams with strong, balanced offenses and how to utilize those stats and situations for success.

This week we take a look at the defensive side of the ball and update our list of defensive dominators in college football.  By mid-October and now over halfway through the college football season with some conference games on the ledger, we can more realistically analyze the proven teams and performers as the statistics and profiles become more clear from a defensive perspective.  Keep in mind with rules changes, scoring increasing and more teams operating out of spread formations and utilizing more up-tempo or no-huddle attacks, we see a shift and increase in scoring and yards.  For example, in the Big 12 conference there are seven teams that score at least 30 point-per-game ( PPG ) while last year five teams finished the season scoring at least 30 PPG.  Six teams average at least 430 yards-per-game ( YPG ) while last year just three Big 12 teams averaged at least 430 YPG.

So each season we adjust our numbers and profiles based on specific parameters, and we sort through the more meaningful stats and understand the strength and weaknesses of opponent’s faces.  I’ve adjusted upward some of the stats and scoring to provide this year’s list of defensive dominators, who must meet the following criteria:

Allow 360 or less yards per game ( YPG )

Allow 155 or less rushing YPG

Allow 24 or less points per game ( PPG )

Allow 5.2 or less yards per play ( YPPL )

 

PPG – Points-Per-Game     YPG – Yards-Per-Game

YPPL – Yards-Per-Play – YPR – Yards-Per-Rush

Team	PPG	YPG	YPPL	Rushing YPG/YPR
Alabama	13	262	4.2	63   (2.3)
Auburn	18	334	4.7	121  (3.3)
Boston College	20	333	4.9	116  (3.7)
Clemson	22	322	4.7	119  (3.4)
Georgia	20	320	4.5	105  (4.5)
Kansas State	24	360	5.2	107  (3.2)
Louisville	14	238	3.5	73   (2.3)
Marshall	18	360	4.6	146  (3.9)
Miami, FL	24	348	4.6	155  (3.8)
Michigan	21	301	4.4	93   (2.7)
Michigan State	24	301	4.7	113  (3.8)
Mississippi	10	290	4.0	97   (2.9)
Nebraska	19	339	4.7	111  (3.7)
Notre Dame	19	346	5.0	103  (3.1)
Ohio State	20	319	4.8	137  (4.0)
Penn State	15	283	4.3	61   (2.0)
Stanford	14	278	3.8	108  (3.0)
Wisconsin	20	311	4.8	129  (3.6)
Utah State	22	342	4.3	99   (2.5)
Virginia	23	316	4.5	107  (3.2)

 

With 128 FBS teams on the college football betting board, only six teams allow 17 points or less per game.  That was one of my parameters in years past to make the defensive dominator list, which would consist of at least 12 teams at this point of the season.  So I’ve noted that 30 teams allow 22 points or less per game and 11 of those teams allow 20 points or less per game.  I’ve strengthened our stat profiles by including games and stats from FBS opponents, so none of the stats above include games against FCS opponents.  Update your stats and info weekly and adjust for strength of schedule along with other statistical, situational and motivational parameters as you shoot for more pointspread winners.

You can strengthen the profiles by evaluating a team’s net yards-per-play differential, between offensive yards-gained and defensive yards allowed, which is often a key statistical indicator for winning and ATS success.  We used this identify our winner and members selection on Miami, FL ( -2 ) in the Hurricaes easy 30-6 road win at Virginia Tech on October 23^rd.

The purpose of this article is to identify some of the stronger defensive teams, and also encourage you to dig a little deeper in your own evaluation of teams, schedules and stats.  For example, there are some solid defensive teams from power conferences who recently fell off this because they just missed certain criteria listed above or had a bad defensive game which skewed their season long stats ( Baylor, TCU, Texas, Mississippi State, Missouri, Iowa ).  Supporting strong defensive teams is usually a good starting point in your analysis of a contest and match-up, but note injuries, turnovers and other negative yardage or factors as you analyze the opponent and schedules.  Defensive profiles can also assist you in totals betting, which can be even more effective with scoring increases, rising posted totals and more inclement weather ahead.

I hope this information is useful to you.  If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to research this or other statistical parameters and profiles to select more point spread winners, then join me and hundreds of other Members and Fairway followers and we’ll win together.