College Football Defensive Dominators

Evaluating The Stats And College Football Defensive Dominators

In seasons past I’ve written many articles on college football using statistical indicators and profiles to direct you to more point spread winners. With four to five games in the books including some conference games, lets identify the defensive dominators this season.

Michigan FB FieldWith some conference games now played, we can more realistically analyze the proven teams and performers as the statistics become more clear. Update your records weekly and keep in mind with rules changes, scoring increasing and more teams operating out of spread formations and utilizing more up-tempo or no-huddle attacks, we see a shift and increase in scoring and yards. Last season college football games averaged more than 56 points per game.

So each season we adjust our numbers and profiles based on specific parameters, and we sort through the more meaningful stats and understand the strengths and weaknesses of teams and opponents. I’ve adjusted slightly downward some of the stats and scoring to provide this year’s list of defensive dominators, who must meet the following criteria:

Allow 350 or less yards per game ( YPG )

Allow 140 or less rushing YPG

Allow 22 or less points per game ( PPG )

Allow 5.0 or less yards per play ( YPPL )

PPG – Points-Per-Game YPG – Yards-Per-Game

YPPL – Yards-Per-Play – YPR – Yards-Per-Rush

Team PPG YPG YPPL Rush YPG/YPR
Alabama 16 273 3.9 84
Appalachian St 18 313 4.7 133
Boise State 15 251 3.7 56
Boston College 12 199 3.1 68
Clemson 16 335 4.7 112
Duke 13 291 4.1 140
Florida 17 304 4.2 99
Florida State 12 281 4.1 140
Georgia 21 322 4.7 128
Illinois 22 344 4.7 135
Iowa 16 317 4.4 97
LSU 21 293 4.3 106
Michigan 8 184 3.1 72
Missouri 14 279 4.1 100
Navy 17 335 5.0 130
NC State 17 254 4.4 91
Northwestern 9 275 4.1 129
Ohio State 15 283 3.7 132
Penn State 16 284 4.1 124
Pittsburgh 16 191 3.2 54
Stanford 19 327 4.7 127
Wisconsin 10 278 4.3 95

 

With 128 FBS teams on the college football betting board, there are currently 15 teams allowing 16 points or less per game in scoring defense. There are 32 teams allowing less than 21 points per game, and that number will drop as teams play more conference games. Note I’ve identified some teams below to watch as they are near defensive dominator status but fall just short in a category or two. I’ve strengthened our stat profiles by including games and stats from FBS opponents, so none of the stats above include games against FCS opponents. Update your stats and info weekly and adjust for strength of schedule along with other statistical, situational and motivational parameters as you shoot for more point spread winners.

Teams to watch – Akron, Arkansas, Baylor, Kentucky, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio U, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Temple, Toledo, USC, Utah, Vanderbilt, Washington, West Virginia

You can strengthen the profiles by evaluating a team’s net yards-per-play differential, between offensive yards-gained and defensive yards allowed, which is often a key statistical indicator for winning and ATS success. Last year we used this to identify one of our Top Plays of the season when Miami, FL (-2) dominated Virginia Tech in an easy 30-6 road win in late October. We’ll be identifying more of these solid situations in the weeks ahead and into November.

The purpose of this article is to identify some of the stronger defensive teams, and also encourage you to dig a little deeper in your own evaluation of teams, schedules and stats. Some of these teams will fall off this list in the weeks ahead, while others I’ve noted that are close will move into dominator status soon.

Supporting strong defensive teams is usually a good starting point in your analysis of a contest and match-up, but note injuries, turnovers and other negative yardage or factors as you analyze the opponent and schedules. Defensive profiles can also assist you in totals betting, which can be even more effective with scoring increases, rising posted totals and more inclement weather ahead.

I hope this information is useful to you. If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to research this or other statistical parameters and profiles to select more point spread winners, then join me and hundreds of other Members and Fairway followers and we’ll win together.

 

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay