College Basketball Handicapping – Last Home Games

How To Use The Emotion And Situations Surrounding Last Home Games

As we near the conclusion of another college basketball season, I often isolate some solid Last Home Game (LHG) situations that have proven profitable for many seasons.  These are not just plays on home teams, but also against lesser or “towel tosser” teams playing on weaker home courts.

Many of these LHG’s bring a level of emotion and effort from both the players and fans as the seniors make their final appearance for the home faithful.  Year after year we see teams that seem to have lost their way rise up in a emotional spot late in the season, while other winning teams and those pushing for a conference title bring their best in a late season redemption or last home game spot.

These kind of efforts and situations are prevalent throughout the final weeks of the season, and it gives you an idea of the emotion and meaning of these late season contests in front of their home fans.  While some teams are pushing for conference titles, others are just trying to finish above .500 for a postseason tournament berth or prepare themselves for the upcoming conference tournaments. Other teams are playing out the string and know the conference tournament is their last shot to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Thus, some of the remaining games will have far less meaning to teams on the downturn or struggling with cohesion, chemistry and potential coaching changes.

Coaches likely on the way out can impact player performance and their ability to respond, so pay attention to potential deadbeat coaches on the way out and also teams that have ‘tossed the towel’ on a lost season.  Still, there is always a game or two in the final weeks that bring out the best in a team, be it a rivalry or revenge game or often the Last Home Game; signaling the end of the college careers for the seniors in front of the home fans.

Over the next two weeks we’ll see the continuation of many of these Last Home Games.  So be sure to evaluate the schedules, stats and situations over the last two weeks and watch for last home games and other solid situations that may provide additional motivation, energy and effort.  Note injuries and chemistry issues that impact performance along with letdown and redemption situations. Top defensive teams are often more consistent in performance so look for those teams down the stretch, and especially at home versus poor shooting offensive teams or laying a modest price on the road versus similar sub-par shooting teams (our Top Play winner on Michigan State over Ohio State). Know that energy, effort, cohesion and chemistry (or lack thereof) are key factors beyond the stats and box scores, and Last Home Games can be a night when the emotion and energy reach peak levels.

If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to analyze stats, isolate strong situations or select more winners and beat the bookmaker consistently, then join me for the rest of the season and throughout the conference and postseason tournaments and we’ll work hard to provide more winners.