NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 9

NFL Week 9 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats The Falcons got their redemption to start the week Thursday, burying the Buccaneers 43-28 in Tampa. A strong, balanced attack for the league’s most productive offense helped the Falcons fly to victory as Atlanta maintains their 2-game lead on top of the NFC South at 6-3. Some surprises in week 9 included the Colts going to Green Bay and leading wire-to-wire in upsetting the Packers 31-26 as 7-point ‘Dog. The Vikings scored a TD with just 23 ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 8

NFL Week 8 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats Early risers Sunday morning watched the Bengals and Redskins come alive in the 2nd half to deliver an over the total winner, but the two teams couldn’t settle the score in overtime to finish in a 27-27 tie.  The marquee Sunday night match-up had a big betting swing, as Eagles bettors were shot down with their solid underdog bet (+5) in a 29-23 overtime loss at Dallas. The Cowboys controlled the line of scrimmage and yards with a strong, balanced ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 7

NFL Week 7 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats Some poor offensive showings and games were clearly evident in Week 7 with the first three games on the card leading the way. The Bears were an embarrassment to Chicago and their betting backers on Thursday night losing at rival Green Bay 26-10 with just 13 first downs, 45 plays and 189 total yards at 4.2 yards per play. Jay Cutler returns at QB for their week 8 Monday night match-up at home against the Vikings and their league-best defense. Another ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 6

NFL Week 6 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats It was a strange week from a statistical perspective as you’ll see below in some of my analysis and charts. There were some huge rushing results with expected win/covers, but some very poor running games by teams that got the money late like the Browns, Giants and Saints. And the New York Giants became the first team this season to have a minus (-3) or greater turnover margin and get the point spread cover (1-16 ATS this year). And it was just the ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 5

NFL Week 5 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats Week 5 started with an ugly prime time game last Thursday when the Cardinals beat the 49ers in San Francisco 33-21. I highlighted this game in a prime time preview, noting the Cardinals would out-rush the 49ers and a big game was likely for RB David Johnson. Arizona did rush for 172 yards, but their offense was still mostly inefficient with 288 yards and 4.4 yards per play. But the 49ers were an embarrassment on national TV, totaling just 286 yards ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 4

NFL Week 4 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats Week 4 was pretty even across the betting board, as favorites went 8-7 SU and 8-7 ATS. The sports books got hurt in the prime time games, as Thursday, Sunday and Monday night favorites all rolled to easy wins (Bengals, Steelers and Vikings). Home underdogs had their first losing week of the season going 2-3 SU/ATS, and home ‘Dogs are not 13-6-1 ATS this season. Close Calls and Point Spread Plays of the Week I had a very good week betting ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 3

NFL Week 3 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats Week 3 was another winner for the underdogs players and sports books, as 'Dogs went 10-6 ATS. In fact, favorites won the game straight up in just 8 of the 16 games. Home underdogs were strong again going 4-1 ATS, and for the season, home 'Dogs are 11-3-1 ATS. Close Calls and Point Spread Plays of the Week Some close calls with line moves impacted betting results, and I had a top play and bet on the Jaguars and won taking 2.5 and also buying it ... More

NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 2

NFL Week 2 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats Week 2 saw more underdogs deliver, with home 'Dogs taking the biggest bites. The Vikings and Rams won outright as home 'Dogs while the Browns lost but covered, making it a 3-0 ATS week for home underdogs. Home underdogs are now 7-2-1 ATS this season. For calculations, I rated the Texans as a slight favorite as they were favored until early game day before the Chiefs took the money with Kansas City closing a 1-point road favorite. Like week 1, ... More