Betting For Value On Valentine’s Day

A Guy’s Guide To Bluffing and Betting For Value On Valentine’s Day In theory, Valentine’s Day is supposed to be a day to celebrate romantic love with a spouse or significant other. So as the big day arrives, I thought I would chip-in some thoughts and tips on emotions and betting. Valentine’s Day generates big spending, in the tens of billions of dollars annually in the United States. From retail sales of candy, jewelry, lingerie, cards, flowers, dinner and other gifts, the heart-... More

Analyzing College Basketball’s Defensive Dominators

FairwayJay digs deep into college basketball stats looking for teams that can dominate defensively to use as a guide for betting NCAA basketball now and throughout the postseason tournaments. College Basketball’s Defensive Dominators and Top Defensive Teams College basketball continues down the closing stretch as teams push for regular season titles, conference championships, playoff positioning and NCAA tournament bids. Second meet situations become more intense and No. 2 Duke was a ... More

Undefeated College Basketball Home Teams And The Impact Of Home Court

Undefeated Home Teams and the Push Towards Conference Titles and NCAA Tournament

Conference play continues through February as college basketball teams push towards conference titles. The top teams are also positioning themselves for the conference tournaments and invitations to postseason play, including the NCAA Tournament. Those suffering through mediocre or sub-.500 seasons are still playing for postseason tournament invitations and improved play with an outside chance of upsets in their conference tournaments later this month and into early March. The power of home court continues to play a pivotal role in a team's success. While many teams at the top of the standings remain undefeated at home or have just one or two losses on their home court, the bottom teams remain competitive at home with a many of them having a winning home record. If you go through the five power conferences plus the Big East and American Athletic (AAC), you’ll find every team in the ACCBig 12 and Big East has a winning home record, and just one team in the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC and AAC have a losing home record. So out of the 87 schools and teams that make up those seven conferences, or 25% of the most watched and bet on teams in the country, just four of them have a losing home record. Yes, it’s tough to win on the road in college basketball. In the Atlantic-10, Conference USA, Colonial, MAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conference, just 12 teams have losing records out of 81 teams making up those seven conferences. Even in the smaller conference with less fans in attendance, home court plays an important role in a team's success. While the oddsmaker factors home court into the point spread and use of power ratings, there are teams who still perform much better on their home floor and exceed the linemakers expectations. Such is the case again this season as only three of the 21 teams with an undefeated home record have a losing point spread record in conference home games. Rule changes in recent seasons, including the reduction to a 30-second shot clock, have provided an added benefit to the more athletic teams who get more possessions. Scoring has increased along with the number of 3-point attempts. So while there continues to be some inflated point spreads down the stretch for these power teams on their strong home courts, you’ll still see some teams able to extend margins over inferior foes. Yet as can often be the case, those lines on home teams can also be a bit higher, even against stronger opponents. In recent days, home favorites on the big board went just 34-38 ATS since Feb. 2. While you must always factor in home court value, it is imperative to look at the point spread to understand and find value, while recognizing a team's motivation, and especially at this time of the season. Coaching is most important in college basketball, and we’ll have more coverage of teams performances along with other statistical parameters to assist in identifying more winners. It’s never easy, even when you have a solid team that is well coached, disciplined and plays strong defense. The variance of 3-point shooting and an off night putting the ball in the basket can result in a loss at any time. Just ask No. 1 seed Virginia in last year’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament in their loss to No. 16 seed University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC). Supporting fans and a comfortable surrounding should only help the home team perform better. Along with good coaching and preparation, players can become more consistent in their play at home along with their performance when having to take to the road in hostile environments. Once teams get to postseason play, you must factor in and handicap a team's home/road performance to deliver more point spread winners and improve their chances to survive and advance. Bet on NCAA basketball at one of these top rated sportsbooks
Know too that there are many teams that have losing records or weaker home courts in which you can support short road favorites if the situations and stats support a play against these teams. Many of these teams have less supporting fans in the stands as a losing season signifies. Finding teams that lack chemistry, coaches on the hot seat and play poorly on the defensive end are often ripe as potential 'towel tossers' down the closing stretch of the season. These teams know they will not achieve a winning record or get invited to a postseason party, and the poor performances will often be more prevalent than the few games with more energy and effort.
Each college basketball season there are approx. 10-15 teams that go undefeated at home for the entire season. Through games on February 4, that list is 21 teams. I’ve also added the teams with one home loss at the bottom. Along with the information above, the ability to understand scheduling and motivational situations will help you when playing on teams with both strong and weak home courts in the final month of the regular season. Updates noted: Feb. 5 - No. 10 Marquette lost to St. John's, 70-69 Feb 7 - Grand Valley lost to Texas Rio Grande Valley, 72-69 Feb 8 - Rider lost to Canisius, 81-80 Feb 9 - Virginia lost to Duke, 81-71 Feb 9 - Abilene Christian lost to Sam Houston State, 90-85 OT Feb 9 - Bowling Green lost to Toledo, 78-71 Feb 12 - Kentucky lost to LSU, 73-71  
Team - record SU Home Conf ATS Home Conference Key Remaining
Abilene Christian (18-4) 11--0 1--4 Southland Sam Houston
Bowling Green (15-6) 11--0 4--0 MAC Toledo, Akron, Kent St, @ Buffalo
Buffalo (19-3) 9--0 3--1 MAC CMU, @ Toledo, Kent St, Bowling Green
Davidson(16-5) 10--0 2--2 Atlantic 10 Dayton
Gardner Webb Gonzaga (21-2) 9--0 13-0 1--3 2--2 Big South West Coast Winthrop San Fran, St. Mary's, BYU
Grand Canyon (14-7) 9--0 4--0 WAC New Mexico St, CS Bakersfield
Hofstra (19-4) 12--0 4--1 Colonial at Charleston
Houston (21-1) 16-0 3--2 AAC Cincinnati, @ UCF
Kansas (17-5) 12--0 2--3 Big 12 Kansas State, Baylor
Kentucky (19-3) 12--0 2--2 SEC LSU, Tennessee, @ Tennessee
Louisiana Tech (15-9) 12--0 5--0 Conference USA UTSA
Marquette (19-3) 14-0 3--2 Big East Villanova, @ Villanova
Michigan (21-2) 14-0 5--1 Big Ten Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan St, @MSU
Nevada (21-1) 11--0 4--1 Mountain West New Mexico, Fresno St, @ Utah St, SDSU
Northern Kentucky (18-6) 13-0 3--2 Horizon Oakland, @ Wright State
Purdue (16-6) 11--0 4--2 Big Ten at Maryland
Rider (12-10) 7--0 0--4 MAAC Canisius, Siena, Monmouth-NJ, @ Quinnipiac
Tennessee (20-1) 12--0 2--1 SEC SC, Kentucky, LSU, @ Kentucky
Virginia (20-1) 11--0 3--1 ACC Duke, @ NC,  @ LOU, @ Syracuse, Louisville
Washington (18-4) 12--0 5--0 Pac 12 at Arizona, @ ASU, Oregon State
Yale (13-4) 6--0 1--0 Ivy Princeton, Harvard, Cornell, @ Princeton
... More

Super Bowl LIII Biggest Bets And Props

LA Rams Look Poised to Win Super Bowl LIII The bets are flooding in the final 24 hours before kickoff as Super Bowl LIII has arrived. The New England Patriots (-2.5) are holding steady as the favorite, but the Rams have taken some buyback and some of the biggest bets. The game total is 56.5. My recent articles at Forbes outline the biggest bets on Super Bowl LIII along with the Super Bowl props the pros are betting. I'm in on some as well. The $2 million Super Bowl bet placed Thursday ... More

LA Rams Look Poised To Pound Patriots In Super Bowl LIII

Betting preview for Super Bowl LII and the LA Rams outlook as another Super Bowl underdog winner. Another record handle is expected for Super Bowl 53 with the New England Patriots a 2.5-point favorite over the Los Angeles Rams at the leading online sportsbooks. The total is 56.5 heading into the weekend with BookMaker down to 56. More than $6 billion will be bet by American’s on Super Bowl LIII, and more than 40% of the betting action and money will be on prop bets. This will be our ... More

Which Patriots And Rams Running Backs Will Impact Super Bowl LIII?

Running Backs Impact on Super Bowl and Prop Bets As Super Bowl LIII approaches and the quarterbacks sit as the two heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl MVP award, the impact of the running backs is being debated on both the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. The Patriots are expected to lean heavily on Sony Michel in the running game, and RB James White in the short passing game. The Rams star RB Todd Gurley, a three-time Pro Bowler and 2017 Offensive Player of the Year, has ... More

College Basketball Weekend Recap As January Comes To A Close

The Big 12/SEC Challenge was part of a busy weekend of college basketball that some some top teams get key wins and make their push towards conference titles and improved play as momentum builds towards the NCAA Tournament. We chipped-in a solid winner in a top-25 tussle Saturday as Iowa State went on the road to rout the Rebels in a 87-73 win at Ole Miss. The game opened pick 'em and Iowa State closed a 1.5-point favorite at the leading online sportsbooks. I provided a betting breakdown and ... More

Super Bowl LIII MVP Odds – Any Value Picks Outside Of Favored Quarterbacks?

Sports betting brings out the biggest stories and prop bet offerings during the week leading towards the Super Bowl. Props bets will make up 40-50% of the handle for many leading sportsbooks, including the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, which released more than 1,000 Super Bowl prop bets on Jan. 24. Super Bowl MVP odds draw some interest despite being a less than favorable bet. I provided a recent piece for TheLines outlining Super Bowl MVP odds, historical winners and potential value on ... More