Betting On Birdies At The John Deere Classic

The 50th edition and anniversary of the John Deere Classic should produce many low scores again with the over/under winning score prop set at 263.5. For 11 straight editions of the event at TPC Deere Run, the winning score has been at least 18-under par over the par 71 course.

I chipped in an early week preview at TheLines with odds info, and added more information you can bet on for the John Deere Classic in my coverage at Forbes.

Looking for a longshot? There are plenty of dark horses to consider in a lighter field this week as I add more coverage at FanDuel and The Duel Sports.

We’re off a tournament match-up winner last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic to run the YTD match-up record to 19-8, and Joaquin Niemann nearly cashed in an outright winner for us as well but lost in a 3-man playoff. Also had a pizza slice bet on Troy Merritt at 100/1, and he too lost in the playoff to longshot winner Cam Davis.

John Deere Classic 2021 Odds


  • Course: TPC Deere Run
  • Location: Silvis, IL
  • Date: July 8-11
  • Par: 71 / Yardage 7,268
  • Purse: $6.2 Million / Winner $1.1 M
  • Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass / Kentucky Bluegrass
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • TV: Golf Channel all four days and CBS final three hours on Saturday and Sunday
  • Defending Champion: Dylan Frittelli (2019)
  • Twitter: @JDCLASSIC #JDC50

Read more course insight, golfers to watch and review power ratings and player stats in updates at TheLines.  Most the top pros are playing in the Scottish Open this week ahead of the Open Championship.

Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Scott Stallings (+7000 DraftKings). Stallings hits greens at a very solid rate, and his sub-par accuracy off the tee won’t be as problematic this week. His approach play was very good last week, and over a three event stretch in May, Stallings gains on the greens and putting was excellent. He could go low on one round, which makes prop bets like first round leader (+7000) appealing to bettors who like longshots that can get hot, but are not as reliable to sustain four solid rounds. Considering Stallings is top-12 in this field in birdies-or-better gained over his last 24 rounds, and you can see why longshots can offer appeal on a course where birdies are plentiful. Stallings has also had success at TPC Deere Run with three top-20 finishes including a T5 in his last four visits.  

Hank Lebioda (+4500 FanDuel) The recent Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands serves as a comp course, and Hank Lebioda finished T5 in that event late last month. Lebioda followed that with a T4 finish last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 3-putted the 71st hole to cost himself a spot in the three-man playoff. Hank is playing his best golf ranking top seven in strokes gained total over his last 36 rounds, and he can challenge to become the 19th first time winner of the John Deere in this 50th anniversary year. The 27-year-old lefty is among the best in the field in hitting greens, and ranks top 10 in ball striking and approach. He’s been making birdies in bunches in three of his last four events with double-digit under par scores. Setting up more birdie chances and making putts is required to go low and challenge for the win at TPC Deere Run.

Wednesday Update from BetMGM: Despite wide open field, bettors continue to bet on more favorites, but not at as high of percentage.

Highest Ticket%

  • Daniel Berger 4.6%
  • Sungjae Im 4.6%
  • Brian Harman 4.2%
  • Russell Henley (4.1%)
  • Patton Kizzire (3.9%)
  • Kevin Streelman and Steve Stricker (3.7%)

Highest Handle%

  • Daniel Berger 6.9%
  • Sungjae Im 6.3%
  • Russell Henley 5.1%
  • Brian Harman (4.9%)
  • Kizzire and Stricker (4.8%)

John Deere Classic Picks

Fairway’s Favorites: Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, Jhonattan Vegas, Maverick McNealy
Fairway’s Longshots: Hank Lebioda, Scott Stallings, Kramer Hickok, Patrick Rodgers

Tournament Match-ups: Pass (19-8 YTD)

Next week it’s the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s in England.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay