Betting Odds at Jack’s Place – The Memorial Tournament Preview At Muirfield Village
The pursuit of profit on the PGA Tour continues for bettors, and we’re on a birdie binge this year. Now 17-5 on tournament match-ups after last week’s winner on Lucas Glover (+130) at the Charles Schwab Challenge. We’ll chip-in more match-ups and information you can bet on for this week’s Memorial Tournament.
You may want to pay attention this week, as we went 3-0 on our Memorial Tournament match-ups last year. One of them was on Jon Rahm, who we also had at 22/1 to win the tournament for an outright bonus winner. Rahm won by 3-shots. Two other match-up winners were with Xander Schauffele laying 1.5 strokes, and Xander whipped Tiger in Woods’ return to a tournament he had won. Schaffele finished T13 and one shot short as one of our projected top-1o finish along with Jordan Spieth. But Matt Fitzpatrick delivered a top-10 for us and finished in solo third place.
Jack Nicklaus is tournament host and Muirfield Village Golf Club is his masterpiece. I provide an early tournament update for the 2021 event with odds, stats, course information and information you can bet on in the Memorial Tournament betting preview at TheLines.
The course went through renovations following last year’s event, and you can review the renovations and improvments by Nicklaus that were implemented to “make the golf course better, not necessarily harder”
Memorial Tournament Odds
– Jon Rahm (+900)
– Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
– Jordan Spieth (+1400)
– Rory McIlroy (+1400)
– Collin Morikawa (+1600)
– Justin Thomas (+1600)
– Viktor Hovland (+1600)
– Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
– Xander Schauffele (+2000)
– Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
– Tony Finau (+2700)
– Corey Conners (+3300)
– Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3400)
– Patrick Reed (+3400)
– Shane Lowry (+3400)
Compare outright win odds, props and match-ups at other legal U.S. sportsbooks I work with that provide sports betting data on golf and other sports. They include Caesars by William Hill, DraftKings, BetMGM, PointBet, TwinSpires Sports and Las Vegas sportsbook operators that more often have better win odds – Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook.
Seven of the top-10, and 16 of the top-25 players in the world will tee-it-up at Muirfield Village. Defending champion Jon Rahm is the favorite with top challengers Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland all less than 20/1.
Players returning who finished top-15 in last year’s Memorial Tournament and are returning in 2021 include:
- Jon Rahm (Won)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (3)
- Matt Wallace (T4)
- Jason Day (T4)
- Mackenzie Hughes (T6)
- Henrik Norlander (T6)
- Tony Finau (8)
- Patrick Reed (T10)
- Luke List (T10)
- Xinjun Zang (T10)
- Xander Schauffele (T13)
- Jordan Spieth (T13)
- Brendan Steele (T13)
- Billy Horschel (T13)
Course and Tournament Info
- Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
- Location: Dublin, Ohio
- Date: June 3-6
- Par: 72 / Yardage 7,543
- Purse: $9.3 Million / Winner $1.67 M
- Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass / Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass
- Greens: Bentgrass / poa annua
- TV: Golf Channel (Thurs-Sun) and CBS (Thurs-Sun 3-6 pm ET)
- Twitter & Hashtag: @MemorialGolf, #theMemorial
A Muirfield course overview provides additional details, stats and toughest holes to monitor when watching and wagering on the Memorial Tournament.
However, with the renovations in place this year that includes all greens reconstructed with bentgrass, most greens complexes were recontoured and rebuilt with significant
bunker modifications. All fairway and greenside bunkers were rebuilt, and the fairways were resurfaced.
Muirfiled Village requires strong approach play and skills on and around the fast, undulating greens. Key strokes gained stats also includes ball-striking and tee-to-green excellence as an emphasis, and longer hitters have an advantage with total driving and distance. But accuracy of the tee will allow for better approach opportunities with golfers having to work various shot-shapes into the greens.
Approach play stats are still more significant than driving stats at Muirfield Village. Key stats from Fantasy National as researched and provided with initial data in the Memorial Tournament preview at TheLines.
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach and Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Putting (on bentgrass)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Par-4 Scoring (focus 400-450 yards)
- Proximity to Hole (150-175 yards)
Golfers to Watch – More analysis at TheLines. Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley, Aaron Wise
Tony Finau (+3100 Circa): A breakthrough win would not surprise as Finau finally puts it together for his second PGA Tour win. The 31-year-old ranks No. 13 in the world, and is outside the top-10 players in the outright win market this week. Lone concern is his driving accuracy and at times putting, but he’s been exceptional Tee-to-Green his past two tournaments when finishing 8th at the PGA Championship and 20th last week at Colonial despite poor putting. Finau is still a top-10 machine with seven in 18 events this season. He ranks No. 5 on TOUR in scoring average, and his strokes gained stats show him top-10 in Tee-to-Green, Around the Green and top-10 in Approach and Ball Striking over his last 36 rounds. Add in top-five Par-5 efficiency numbers in this field and solid Par-4 efficiency with proven Greens-in-Regulation stats at Muirfield, and Finau should fire a top finish again. Finau has finished top 15 four times in his last six appearances at Jack’s place and T8 last year at Muirfield when he led after Round 1 and was the co-leader into the weekend.
Aaron Wise (+12000): Wise was profiled on these pages earlier this year, and then went out and took the 36-hole lead on the Nicklaus Course at the Honda Classic in March. He finished T13 which was a major disappointment since he had a 3-shot lead halfway home, but his resurgence at just 24 years old has been positive and includes a top 10 at the Wells Fargo event on a long, classic course at Quail Hollow, and top 10 at the PGA Championship is last start despite shooting 79 in the second round. Wise’s short game and putting sucks, which has held him back. But his T2G and OTT game are top 25 and he’s been solid with his Approach play and Ball Striking, which he’s been working on to improve and it’s paying off. A positive putting performance at the PGA Championship has to have him feeling good, as it was his best SG: Putting result in nearly two years. Wise is a young talent who can play, but you’re usually at risk with such a suspect short game. At these odds, he’s worth the risk and a top-20 finish returns +450.
the Memorial Tournament Picks
Fairway’s Favorites: Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann (+4800)
Fairway’s Longshots: Russell Henley (+8000), Adam Scott (+8800), Aaron Wise (+12000), Charl Schwartzel (+16000)
Best longshot odds at Circa Sports, Las Vegas.
Tournament Match-ups: Tony Finau (-125) vs Patrick Reed (BetMGM & William Hill).
17-5 tournament match-ups in 2021.
Next week is the Palmetto Championship at Congaree in South Carolina. Most the top pros will be off in preparation for the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines starting June 17.
Post tournament update: Our posted tournament match-up lost, and the 2021 record is now 17-6. Tony Finau had a 2-shot lead into the weekend and stunk, while Reed got hot and moved up the leaderboard. One Golfer to Watch we noted fared well as the biggest longshot – Aaron Wise (+12000) finished top-10 for a +1100 payoff and +450 for top-20. Patrick Cantlay (+2000) won in a playoff over Collin Morikawa.