Betting Baseball Post All-Star Break
First Game After the All-Star Break and Other Baseball Betting Situations
First game after the All-Star game…since 2004, the better teams as home favorite have gone 91-51 to an average line of -147. That’s a return on investment of +8.2% with all home teams going 130-95 (+7.2 ROI).
Two seasons ago, I cautioned laying big prices when betting on the two best teams in the second half of the season and both the LA Dodgers and Houston Astros lost money after the All-Star break despite playing winning baseball and finishing with more than 100 wins on their way to meeting in the World Series.
More insight…five teams who are strong candidates to regress to a lower run differential in the second half of the season based on their YTD bb/k +- include: Twins (+116), Yankees (+113) Rays (+80), Rangers (+29) and Rockies (+2). Five strong candidates to improve to a higher run differential based on their YTD bb/k are the Astros (+86), Indians (+27), Angels (-3), Giants (-70) and Mariners (-71).
You can bet on it.